Ward by ward: Harlow Common-For whom the voter Toals?
Politics / Wed 4th May 2016 am31 09:36am
WE thought we would save the very tricky one to last..and then run away.
We also know that the parties have all put a lot of effort in this ward.
Back in 2011, it looked fairly comfortable for Labour as they won by 211 votes (50%). In 2012, it was a win by 265 votes (51%).
In 2014, it was all rather different as Labour squeaked home by 26 votes and saw their percentage share drop to 36%. This time it was UKIP’s Sam Stopplecamp who came second.
In 2015, a year in which we think there was a big “Halfon bounce”, it got even closer. Labour won by just 16 votes (36%).
Will it be as close again? Probably. The Conservatives have really worked this ward. Candidate, Hannah Ellis may well personify everything Harlow Conservatives believe about the new breed of Conservative. Hannah may have spent this time last year, standing on the side of the A414, supporting Robert Halfon but she has learned a great deal from her Westminster colleagues and the local group as well.
Having had a Halfon bounce, will there be a Halfon backlash? Perhaps. A number of people have mentioned voting patterns on the doorstep. There was a great deal of Tory wave last year, that may be on the downswing this year.
Then again, we know of Radburn Close swing voters who would not vote for a party led by “Wierdy” (Ed Miliband) and have now said they will not vote for party led by “Beardy”…
And of the Labour candidate. Emma Toal has been a force of nature in Harlow politics ever since her Harlow Youth Council days. What Emma may lack in political strategy she make sup for with hard work, determination and an understanding of what matters to the people of Harlow. Emma is also a very hard worker.
It is credit to our town that this ward has pitted together two worthy opponents who may well prove that the political future of Harlow is in safe hands.
One day we will catch up with Gary Roberts.
YH prediction Labour hold: 65……..
Mike CARR UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Hannah ELLIS The Conservative Party Candidate
Gary ROBERTS Independent
Emma TOAL Labour Party
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