Will Robert Halfon hold Harlow at the next General Election?
General / Sun 29th Oct 2023 at 09:52am
WHEN we were interviewing Harlow MP Robert Halfon on Friday, we asked him whether this has been the toughest time he has had being a Conservative MP?
His party is anywhere between 12 and 24 points behind in the opinion polls.
They are losing by-elections in constituencies with 20,000 plus majorities.
Equally worrying, people seemed to have stopped listening.
Political historians will tell you about Jim Callaghan in 1978, John Major in 1996 and Gordon Brown in 2009.
That twelve months before the General Election can be a long and lonely time.
In the past two weeks, much of the anger and ire regarding the SFG College debacle has been aimed at Mr Halfon.
He is an education minister and he is the local MP.
But we wondered of this was part of a growing frustration or fatigue with the Conservatives in general?
Mr Halfon is defending a 14,063 majority. That is a big lead for Labour’s Chris Vince to claw back.
In some ways, Mr Vince may remind himself that in 1997, over 25,000 Harlow constituents voted for Labour. Yes, that was a different time but those voters are, potentially, still out there.
In 2019, just 13,000 voted for Labour. The number of voters since 2010 has been: 14,766 (33.7%), 13,273 (30.0%), 17,199 (38.3%) and then 13,447 (31.0%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harlow_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
They were all perfectly respectable campaigns but nothing outstanding. All those Labour candidates worked really hard.
But Robert Halfon is a formidable campaigner with a lot of support and goodwill. You sit with him in any cafe across the town and there will always be residents/voters coming up to him, shaking him by the hand. That takes a lot of work. That is the product of a lot of work since he was selected in November 1999.
There will no doubt be many critics who will come on here and criticise his polices and the policies of his government.
Many others may just keep quiet. However, there has be a huge amount of goodwill and gratitude from businesses, residents, charities, individuals who have been helped by his office.
There have also been the bigger tickets from town centre regeneration to the pledge of a new hospital.
Trouble is, by October 2024, a lot of these things will have yet to be delivered. Or are in development stage. That may well not be of much comfort when going to the ballot box in 2024.
We have a feeling that Robert Halfon may well hang on. Perhaps in the same way that Labour’s Stan Newens did in 1979. Stan went from a majority of 13,451 in 1974 to 1,392 in 1979.
Now we make that prediction, 12 months out, having last backed a winner in the Grand National in 1994 (Minniehoma) but we think that 14,063 will go down to 2,300.
It could be closer. Look at 2005, when Bill Rammell held on by 95 votes. Each candidate polling over 16,000.
What both have in common, like many others, are nationals factors.
1979: Winter of discontent and general dis-satisfaction with Labour
1983: The Falklands, Margaret Thatcher, Michael Foot, Right To Buy
1992: Tours held Harlow with a reduced majority and helped by voters still not buying into Neil Kinnock
1997: Tony Blair
2005: Labour hold Harlow by 95. See above and Iraq.
The local elections in 2024 will give us a guide. The Tories retained the council in 2023 and gained a seat but look at the decline in the number of votes:
However, the number of votes polled is steadily going down
2021: 11,805
2022: 8,925
2023: 6,675
The key for Robert Halfon may well be, like some of the by-elections from Selby to Mid-Bedfordshire Conservative voters simply not turning out. He may have to do a lot of hard yards with the good people of Hatfield Heath and Hatfield Broad Oak but assume nothing. They have a penchant for a residents party at a local level (Uttlesford First).
In conclusion, we just thought we would have a look at the lay of the land in 2023 as we head (probably) into an election year. As we said, this piece is not about the pros and cons of policies and records. It is about voting behaviour, trends and the direction of travel.
We will return to tho subject (all things being equal) in May 2024 after the local elections.
Tiredoffailedpoliticalnorms
2023-10-29 10:30:45
As discussed elsewhere on Your Harlow, Robert has patently dropped the ball and his miserable performance in the associated piece to this interview, seeking to blame shift the fallout from the SFG fiasco simply reflects what little impact and influence he has within this government and his own party. Furthermore, in addition to the more general mismanagement of school buildings, just a few additional examples for readers consideration of how he , his party and their government have failed the town; failed to deliver the promised new hospital; failed to translate the neglected former GSK site into a the HSA hub and associated jobs promised; failed to protect Harlow from the flagrant abuse being applied by neighbouring councils “dumping “ their housing obligations onto the town; supporting a government in which the constant and ongoing infighting and self interest has systematically trashed the national economy and international world standing. I could go on. While current alternatives may not be ideal then, if for no other reason, that patently continually re-electing this bunch of conservative incompetents seems to embolden their arrogant misplaced sense of authority and entitlement. Turning up for a coffee and photo opportunities ( except where there is bad news such as SFG for example) does not in reality get things done . Enough is enough and time for change.
Adam
2023-10-29 10:55:05
Lets look since 2019 1. lockdowns and massive restrictions on personal liberty - huge crime against humanity, cause massive socio economic problems and did nothing to stop covid (government is not that powerful) still only 25 people died of covid at PAH in the entire time none under 50 (FOI December 2021) - Criminal investigations required not the white wash which is the covid enquiry 2. Massive covid corruption tens / hundreds of billions wasted to cronies - Criminal investigations required 3. NHS was failing before but now 7 Million plus on the waiting list its over the NHS is finished - this is largely also due in part to how the NHS is it is structurally a bad idea - look to EU models 4. Highest taxes outside of war time to increasingly give away freebies to those who contribute nothing but scream the loudest. 5. Inflation - caused by printing billions in covid - now impoverishing the poorest in society - note labour wanted longer and harder lockdowns 6. Schools falling down - the public sector cannot deliver - though funny how labour who kept so many kids out of school due to a cold and the education unions wanting to stick it to the hated Tories now appear to care about kids education 7. General state of the town, not the MPs exact role but his party is in power, and in the power for the CC and TC the roads are like they have been shelled by the Russians. There is general feel of apathy and defeat in the town 8. Brexit was not really delivered we should be Singapore on Thames but the government bottled it - low taxes low regulation attracting business investment. 9. Energy independence - failure to build and secure our own Nuclear energy independence (both parties have done this) 10. Net zero insanity - This is just like covid utter scam by dodgy models, designed to impoverish citizens of the UK while other countries make no changes. Hint we are less than 1% of global emissions if the models are true (remember the covid models they are not) what we do make no difference. 11 In ability to build and invest in national infrastructure projects all parties experience this HS2 is a disaster as is civil nuclear power. It takes us decades to do what other countries do quickly and efficiently largely because we have become a nation of managers and power point commandos. We have lost the ability to deliver and introduced to many blockers. Sadly labour and lib dems are the same also, more globalist, micro management controlling government. What we need is strong independents, who cut taxes, restore faith in the and get people and businesses of the government teat. Lets be honest neither Robert nor Chris have ever created anything outside using public sector funds. they have never created businesses or employed people. Never developed products or created export opportunities. The sole answer to everything is more state more taxes more hand outs. Both are utterly unsuitable for the position we find ourselves in as a nation needing to grow and recover.
Adam
2023-10-29 11:08:24
Lets look since 2019 1. lockdowns and massive restrictions on personal liberty - huge crime against humanity, cause massive socio economic problems and did nothing to stop covid (government is not that powerful) still only 25 people died of covid at PAH in the entire time none under 50 (FOI December 2021) - Criminal investigations required not the white wash which is the covid enquiry 2. Massive covid corruption tens / hundreds of billions wasted to cronies - Criminal investigations required 3. NHS was failing before but now 7 Million plus on the waiting list its over the NHS is finished - this is largely also due in part to how the NHS is it is structurally a bad idea - look to EU models 4. Highest taxes outside of war time to increasingly give away freebies to those who contribute nothing but scream the loudest. 5. Inflation - caused by printing billions in covid - now impoverishing the poorest in society - note labour wanted longer and harder lockdowns 6. Schools falling down - the public sector cannot deliver - though funny how labour who kept so many kids out of school due to a cold and the education unions wanting to stick it to the hated Tories now appear to care about kids education 7. General state of the town, not the MPs exact role but his party is in power, and in the power for the CC and TC the roads are like they have been shelled by the Russians. There is general feel of apathy and defeat in the town 8. Brexit was not really delivered we should be Singapore on Thames but the government bottled it - low taxes low regulation attracting business investment. 9. Energy independence - failure to build and secure our own Nuclear energy independence (both parties have done this) 10. Net zero insanity - This is just like covid utter scam by dodgy models, designed to impoverish citizens of the UK while other countries make no changes. Hint we are less than 1% of global emissions if the models are true (remember the covid models they are not) what we do make no difference. 11 In ability to build and invest in national infrastructure projects all parties experience this HS2 is a disaster as is civil nuclear power. It takes us decades to do what other countries do quickly and efficiently largely because we have become a nation of managers and power point commandos. We have lost the ability to deliver and introduced to many blockers. Sadly labour and lib dems are the same also, more globalist, micro management controlling government. What we need is strong independents, who cut taxes, restore faith in the and get people and businesses of the government teat. Lets be honest neither Robert nor Chris have ever created anything outside using public sector funds. they have never created businesses or employed people. Never developed products or created export opportunities. The sole answer to everything is more state more taxes more hand outs. Both are utterly unsuitable for the position we find ourselves in as a nation needing to grow and recover.
Dan Long
2023-10-29 12:32:18
I don't care who is standing in next year's general election and what partiparties are standing. I will not be voting for any of them. Is my books the local elections are more important than the general election. The residents of Harlow need things sorted out here in Harlow. I bet more Harlow residents will vote in the local election compared to the general Election because the majority of people, here in Harlow and nationally have had enough of those in parliament who are were voted into represent the residents of their constituencies by the electorate but the majority of the mps, no matter what party they represent are not serving the residents who voted them in as a MP. So no, in not voting in the General election only the locals.put Harlow first.from Dan Long
Dan Long
2023-10-29 12:34:31
P.s. you can't build a house without the footings. Every starts from the bottom and makes its way up. Not the other way around.
Nogin the nog
2023-10-29 15:11:01
Robert halton had a good run I am shore he has done some good things but I cant think what time for a change
peter Henegan
2023-10-29 17:18:27
"But Robert Halfon is a formidable campaigner with a lot of support and goodwill. You sit with him in any cafe across the town and there will always be residents/voters coming up to him, shaking him by the hand. That takes a lot of work. That is the product of a lot of work since he was elected in November 1999" YH Mr H was elected in 2010, not 1999-did you mean to say selected?
votefor
2023-10-29 17:29:44
Nationally, the conservatives deserve to be voted out, however locally they seem very proactive and I am encouraged. Against that, Labour have selected a local candidate. I guess many voters vote for the same party irrespective of how well they do (tories particularly in the villages perhaps although many of my town friends will only vote tory), the question thus becomes "will 7500 Harlow Town voters change their allegiance?". Brexit was a big factor I believe last time, within that immigration was a big consideration. The govt likes to claim it has control of our borders, if enough people continue to believe that then RH will get voted back in no matter what the economic consequences.
Luke Burton
2023-10-29 20:13:56
This time round, both the local and national actions by the Conservative party have angered me a great deal. I cannot justify voting for Halfon no matter how you cut it.
Pedro
2023-10-29 22:51:24
The only way Rod will hold his seat is if his Party become proper conservatives again, Lower taxes, support businesses, control immigration, get tough on crime and end "Woke" and "Cancel Culture"
Tony B
2023-10-30 12:05:36
Harlow people need to wake up to the constituency boundary changes. It will be an easy win for the Conservatives; just look at Harlow's new constituency. Sheering, Lower Sheering, Roydon, Lower Nazeing, Dobbs Weir, Hasting Wood, Foster Street, Threshers Bush, Matching Tye, Matching Green, Matching, Housham Tye, Newman’s End. I don't think the voters from these areas could be regarded as Labour voters. It was quite interesting for me to see what areas were not considered to be in the Harlow constituency. Outside Harlow constituency, to the west of Harlow, the area of Sumners is the dividing line. Broadley Common, Tylerscross, Roydon Hamlet, and Jacks Hatch are not in the Harlow constituency. Neither is Gilston!
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