General election: Tories face wipe out and would lose Harlow in “most authoritative opinion poll in five years”
Politics / Mon 15th Jan 2024 at 11:39am
THE Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted reports The Daily Telegraph.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
Harlow, where Robert Halfon, defends a 14,000 majority, is predicted to got to Labour. That would be the first time since 2005.
Every Red Wall seat won from Labour by Boris Johnson in 2019 will be lost, the poll indicates, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will be one of 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats.
The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
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This is what happens when people's lives haven't improved in 14-years. I'm not saying Labour is the answer but hell do I think it's time for a different set of people to have a go now.
I could not agree with you more Luke Burton,very well said.
A general election can't come soon enough. The Conservatives have been promising "jam tomorrow" for fourteen years. Fourteen years where things have got steadily worse.
Listening to Keir Starmer on TV yesterday, it is pretty clear that he has no real vision or plans. The Tories have failed to halt migration and to stop the tide of wokery. They have not been tough on crime. Labour will not improve any of these and will make it worse. The country needs change, but neither of the main parties will deliver. We need a truly patriotic party like Reform UK to stand up for our people and country.
Rob Halfon has been a good MP for Harlow however he has been badly let down by Conservative central office, they have backtracked on so many issues like the move of UKHSA to the pinnacles, the long lost New Hospital, Taxation to historical highs, uncontrolled mass immigration and installing a party leader that no one wanted. Harlow may well lose Rob however a labour party led by Captain Dull who has backtracked and lied whilst in opposition is not what this country needs.
This comes as no surprise to me having spoken to many residents in the last 4 years. You can add to the list already mentioned, converting offices in to tiny flats, the longest NHS waiting times in history, the greatest increase in the UK population in history, the collapse of the NHS dentist service, unable to get an appointment with your doctor, the list goes on and on. The local scene is no better. I have just received the local Tory newspaper called intouch which makes interesting reading. Despite spending millions of pounds we will still have the smallest theatre in the region, a live music venue which holds just 200 people, whilst still leaving much of the Town Centre looking like a bomb site. Spending huge sums on a new bus station and planting shrub areas and trees will do nothing to attract more visitors to the centre, evidence of this can be found in many other town centres around the country. It's called levelling up but no-one can say levelling up to what and how this will ever be measured. I am of course no supporter of Labour but the Tories are a busted flush. Nicholas Taylor, Leader of Harlow Alliance.
Pedro is completely right. Rob Halfon is a excellent constituency MP for Harlow. He has always shown strong commitment and is highly visible in the town. To exchange him for a bumbling, non-entity like Labour's Chris Vince (already rejected as a candidate several times by other constituencies) would be grave mistake and a disservice to Harlow.
Halfon has failed to deliver on any of his promises. He's only good at talking the talk but doesn't walk the walk. The sooner his gone the better.
Alex, Labour under Chris Vince as Opposition leader of the Council have no grasp of any facts, no plans and are an embarrassment. He can't even talk the talk!
That article in the Torygraph could be an underestimate and may be an attempt to push the Tories even further to the right. The modelling used plays down the effect of tactical voting. This poll was commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance (who? A bunch of conservative donors). This poll and article are only directed at those Tories who want to stop the (laughably named) "Safety" Rwanda bill. It is meant to scare them into thinking the Reform nutters have more influence than they do. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/15/yougov-poll-telegraph-tories-disaster-analysis
Julie, chris Vince is married he ain’t gonna go out with you
Niether party exactly fill you full of joy and forward positivity. Both are simply two sides of the same wet flannel.
Halfon is a good local MP? I can't see what good he has done locally that's actually notable beyond sitting on a collapsible chair on the A414 and carrying a sign saying vote for me. How has this town improved at all under him? Parking is a nightmare, roads are a nightmare, crime is utterly out of control, cycle lanes are a nightmare, SFG College exists in name only, PHE/HSA hasn't come here yet, PAH isn't getting a new hospital, young, hardworking, and educated adults born in Harlow can't afford a house even with a well-paying job, the trains are overpriced and never run, energy prices are through the roof.
I find it inconceivable that anyone still thinks that labour could be worse than the tories. I don't think anybody could be worse! And to say labour do not have a plan, well their plan seems to be working pretty well at present for them. Once the election is announced we will see their intentions for the nation
I agree, Pete. With first-past-the-post voting for the party that has the best chance to remove the incumbent is just the pragmatic thing to do. Others might thing parties like Green or Reform provide the answer, but I'm certainly not going to risk splitting my vote. I've had enough of the past 14-years and I'm ready for something different.
I encourage everyone right leaning to vote for Reform. At least that way it will split the vote and someone else can have a go. You are kidding yourself if you think anyone other than Labour or Conservatives can win. Not without true reform, which isn't even a policy of the Reform party! I would rather risk a Labour government than another 5 years of this.
Richard, if you are a Reform sympathiser, Labour offers nothing on the main issues that concern people: immigration, taxes and the economy. Starmer is incapable of committing to anything. He is a chameleon. This government has certainly fallen short of the mark on the above issues;Labour will be far worse. We cannot risk a Starmer government!
After the covid enquiry and their lockdown parties you are all still going to vote for them? Some of you need a lobotomy,
Richard - I completely agree that the two Party system has failed us for way too long! The current crop of both Tory and Labour are chronically poor. Worst set of MPs in my 52 year lifetime. Only about 10 of the 650 are any use frankly. Time to try UKIP or Reform UK! Hopefully they will unite together soon! Greens and Fib.Dims are no use either! Mark Gough - UKIP/ Reform UK
Sal - don't forget it wasn't just the Tories on those Parties! Labour did the same - but got away with it because they held theirs in an area where the police did nothing thanks to the PCC being Labour and a big mate of Starmer!!!
Reform are just the remnants of the brexit mob. Everything they said then were lies. If they ever got into power, this country would be ultra right wing mess.
We can all argue who to vote for but we can all agree nothing will change.
Mark Gough makes a good point. Reform UK and UKIP need to unite. With a leader like Nigel Farage they would take a lot of votes from both the Tories and Labour. Don't forget that Harlow was one of the strongest Leave voting areas. The current two party system is not working. People need to stop voting for the two main parties who don't represent us any longer. Neither Starmer nor Sunak is credible or worthy of leading this nation. They are the two sides of the same coin - useless. Getting rid of Sunak for Starmer is not a change.
Might as well not turn up if you're going to vote Reform. They will take votes away from the Tories but that's all they will achieve.
Not exactly helping with that stigma, are you Concerned Hatfield Resident? You'll find well established and very pleasant communities within Harlow too. You will also find all the negatives that you listed within your own communities, perhaps to a lesser scale but equivalent to the population. It's a shame that your only social concerns appear to be association with people you look down on and it's impact on your own personal wealth. I do hope that we don't become too much of a burden on your bank account and cause damage your image.
I see the comment has now been removed.