PATIENTS across the East of England could benefit from improved outcomes from NHS services thanks to a pioneering artificial intelligence (AI) model being developed by University of Hertfordshire (UH) researchers as part of the University of Hertfordshire Integrated Care System (UHICS) partnership.

Partners include the NHS, County Council, and Voluntary Community Faith and Social Enterprise alliance in Hertfordshire and West Essex. 

The innovative project uses AI to analyse and forecast healthcare demand, enabling NHS and council managers to make better-informed decisions about resources, staffing and patient care, thus resulting in cost efficiencies. 

The project, which launched last year and is funded by the UHICS partnership, explores how advanced AI techniques can unlock greater value from existing NHS data. 

The University research team is analysing five years of historical data to develop a unique modelling system that integrates admissions, treatments, re-admissions, bed capacity, infrastructure pressures and workforce availability, alongside local demographic factors such as an ageing population, gender and ethnicity specific health needs and trends, and deprivation. 

Using machine learning, the model produces forecasts that show how healthcare demand is likely to change over time and models the impact of these in the short, medium and longer term. 

Iosif Mporas, Professor of Signal Processing and Machine Learning at the University of Hertfordshire’s School of Physics, Engineering and Computer Science, who leads the project, said: 

“By working together with the NHS, we are creating tools that can forecast what will happen if no action is taken and quantify the impact of a changing regional demographic on NHS resources.” 

Charlotte Mullins, Strategic Programme Manager for NHW Herts and West Essex, said: 

“The strategic modelling of demand can affect everything from patient outcomes including the increased number of patients living with chronic conditions. Used properly, this tool could enable NHS leaders to take more proactive decisions and enable delivery of the 10-year plan articulated within the Central East Integrated Care Board as our strategy document.” 

While AI is increasingly being explored across the NHS, the project team believes this is one of the first tools focused specifically on NHS system-wide operational management, rather than individual diagnostics or patient-level interventions. 

The AI model is already being tested in hospital settings but can be extended across the wider NHS estate, including community services and care homes. 

As the Hertfordshire and West Essex Integrated Care Board (which serves 1.6 million residents) prepares to merge with two neighbouring Integrated Care Boards to form the Central East Integrated Care Board, data from a much wider population will be incorporated into the next phase of development, further enhancing the AI model’s predictive capabilities. 

Professor Mporas’ multidisciplinary team includes two full-time postdoctoral researchers, and development of the A.I. model is continuing throughout 2026.