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Latest poll puts Robert Halfon on course for victory

General Election 2019 / Thu 28th Nov 2019 pm30 04:50pm

THE LATEST opinion poll has predicted that the Conservative candidate, Robert Halfon, is on course to be returned as MP for Harlow for a fourth time.

The poll’s multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) model shows that across the country the Conservatives will take 44 seats from Labour.

MRP stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification, which means it produces predictions based on small geographic areas, analysing elements of a person’s background and lifestyle to draw probabilities of their voting habits.

This is then used with larger census data to work out how many people of a certain demographic live in each area.

The MRP process can produce a more detailed and potentially more accurate prediction.

The poll is predicting that the Conservatives will win 68 seats to mean a small majority of 359 seats – if the December 12 election was held tomorrow.

The poll’s methods correctly predicted that Britain would have a hung parliament in 2017.

The poll findings for Harlow are as follows..

Conservative-Robert Halfon
Low: 52%
Estimate: 60%
High: 67%

Labour-Laura McAlpine
Low: 26%
Estimate: 32%
High: 40%

Lib-Dem-Charlotte Cane
Low: 4%
Estimate: 8%
High: 13%

In 2017, Robert Halfon received 54% of the vote (7,031 maj with 24,230 votes) compared to Labour’s (Phil Waite) 38.3% of the vote and 17,199 votes.

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8 Comments for Latest poll puts Robert Halfon on course for victory:

Gary
2019-11-28 17:58:08

Balance I find is always important and publishing local predictions on the outcome two weeks before polling day is just poor. Therefore I will suggest that if Mr. Halfon does indeed win the people in this town will see no change just more of the same Conservative cuts we have had over the last nine years. Let me also suggest that the 20,000 police as with the 50,000 nurses promised will not materialise and is just rhetoric of the most shameful kind. I have never been asked for my voting intention, so for the record I will be voting for Laura McAlpine the Labour party candidate: how is that for balance!?

MickyB77
2019-11-29 05:26:17

More of the same from the lefty stooge.

Gary
2019-11-29 07:36:52

MickyB77 have you checked with your Tory mates about giving me compliments? Thank you, but more would be appreciated.

jhumphreys84
2019-11-29 09:11:44

I do see your point Gary and yes, the data from one poll doesn't give overall balance and many things can change leading into the election. There are a number of other polls that could also be used in this story, but to be fair they don't go into as much depth on seats and produce useable graphics for coverage. However, in saying that, whatever poll you look at does have Robert Halfon as a comfortable win. It is a shame in a way, that despite the number of failings by the government, the Labour message just isn't hitting in places like Harlow, which when you think about it, given a Labour council controlled area, it really should be a much closer seat. Perhaps a change of tact by Labour would help, especially in getting some of the pro remain voters from Conservatives which are up for grabs, but some of the extreme policies aren't appealing to those who are floating around the centre ground...

MickyB77
2019-11-29 12:17:34

Dream on, it isn't going to happen. The bully boys in Momentum, and their fellow AntiFas, are firmly in the public eye for what they are. An ex shop steward suggesting what he thinks is best for Harlow, namely L M / Mrs A......i , proves that the lefties are completely out of touch with reality. Robert Halfon, whether you like it or not, has brought money, jobs and security into the Harlow area, by the shed load. Beat that. As for trying to conjure up, pro remainers etc; pitiful response to what will be a victory for the Tories. Corbyn for P M ? You really are in cuckoo land.

BringerOfFacts
2019-11-29 18:40:43

Half on half off. Actually all off. Robert Halfon has been the MP for Harlow and the villages since 2010 and has never once voted against the government. When government attacked Harlow's school budgets he voted for it, when they shut down Harlow's youth services he voted for it. He doesn't stand up for his constituents, he isn't from here, doesn't live here and doesn't show any backbone to stand up for this community. It's unbelievable that we put up with him.

MickyB77
2019-12-01 05:14:58

Some people appear completely out of touch with reality, and are absolutely un-aware of what goes on around them. It's happening much too often, still, it'll all be over for them soon. Poor descriptive choices too !

Ally76
2019-12-01 18:18:01

The only result what matters is the official one in the early hours of December 13th. Opinion polls and assumptions are a dangerous thing to go by.

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