WHEN this seat was contested two years ago (it was an all out election due to boundary changes), the Labour candidate polled the most votes.

Luke Howard was followed by two Conservative councillors.

That goes to show that it was a ward where the vote can go in a number of directions.

There was one year (2018), when the Conservative candidate beat the Labour candidate by one vote.

But as we know 2026 may be very different.

And once again the question is; will it be the year for Reform or can the Dan Swords Factor (sounds like a 60’s Jazz combo) swing it for the Conservatives?

First things first. Conservative councillor Stacey Seales was supposed to be defending the seat. In fact she did produce a few promotional video. The next thing we know, Ms Seales told us she was de-selected. If you want to vote for her, she is standing in Chelmsford.

We always found that Stacey’s heart was in the right place. She was also a bit eccentric, a bit non-sequitur but, we recall once seeing her at her surgery in a church hall and thought, that really is what local democracy is all about.

She has been replaced by John Steer, who again, is one of the Conservatives loyal foot soldiers. He may well not light up the room but he will get the job done.

The Reform candidate is Stephen Thompson. He should have a very good chance here. You do feel that if a Reform candidate can win here and then work this ward, then they could have a few years as the local councillor. That’s big if though.

But they key thing here is to look at the percentages. Can Reform get over 50% of the vote?

It feels like that type of ward. Conservative Alasdair Gunn is highly respected, especially for the work he has done in Berecroft. Before him, Labour’s Mark Wilkinson was an excellent councillor.

It may be a sign of the times in 2026, that we have got this far down this news item, without mentioning the Labour candidate. We just happen to think they may well be in for a torrid time and may well be in damage limitation territory.

Howard Beaumont is a welcome new member of The Green Party. As we will say on all these pieces, the Greens make a very valuable contribution to political life in Harlow. They just need to really work on increasing members between the age of 18-34. The whole Gen Z thing.

YH Prediction: Reform Gain

Candidates