ON the one year anniversary of the Labour government, a new MRP poll from communications agency PLMR and Electoral Calculus reveals that Reform UK is on course to become the biggest party in the East of England and form a majority government at the next General Election.

The poll of over 5,000 British adults reveals that if a General Election were held tomorrow, Reform UK would win 35 out of 43 seats in the region.

Labour would be reduced to just two seats in Norwich South and Cambridge, the Conservatives would be left with just one seat in Epping Forest in Essex, and the Liberal Democrats would win five seats including three in Cambridgeshire and two more in Chelmsford and North Norfolk.

Harlow

Reform: 41%

Conservative: 23%

Labour: 20%

Green: 7%

Lib Dem: 7%

Nationally, Reform UK would secure 31% of the national vote, compared to 22% for Labour and 19% for the Conservatives. Based on constituency-level voting intention, this would result in a predicted 377 seats for Reform UK, up from just five secured in the last election.

Labour would fall from 412 to 118 seats, while the Conservatives are predicted to collapse to just 29 seats, trailing behind the Liberal Democrats on 69 seats.

This would see Nigel Farage become Prime Minister without the need for any parliamentary coalition or alliances. Even if all the other parties joined forces, they would not have enough seats to prevent Farage walking into Number Ten.

These findings mark an historic acceleration in the reshaping of Britain’s political landscape, with issue-based voter priorities breaking away from traditional party loyalties.

Economic insecurity remains the number one driving factor for voters in the East of England, with 52% of voters in the region citing the cost of living and the economy as the main issue driving their voting intention. This is closely followed by NHS waiting times (45%) and immigration (42%).

Among Reform UK voters specifically, the importance of addressing the economy and immigration concerns become even more stark, with 57% citing fears around the cost of living, and an overwhelming 83% citing immigration as the main issues driving their votes.

This highlights the need for Labour and the Conservatives to cut through on these issues in order to win back support from voters who want action on cost of living pressures and border control.  

The sharp decline in vote share for both the Labour and Conservative parties also points to a profound realignment of voters, and the growing appeal of Reform UK’s message among economically left-leaning, but culturally conservative voters.

Reform UK’s dominance is clear in the traditional Conservative voting East of England where economic anxiety and immigration have overshadowed traditional party allegiances.

Notably, voters who expect their personal financial situation to worsen are more likely to support Reform UK and express distrust in existing political leaders. Meanwhile, those who remain optimistic about their finances are more likely to lean towards Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

Tim Miller, Managing Director of PLMR Genesis, the East of England team for PLMR, said: “Just one year into this Labour Government we are already seeing a seismic political shift amongst voters in the East of England and a clear disillusionment with the two major parties.

“This is the third time we have run this poll and the support for Reform has been steadily growing over the past twelve months. This is now a watershed moment as, for the first time, we are now seeing Reform would be able to form a majority government at the next election.

“The driving factors behind this change in public opinion are clear. Voters in the East, historically overlooked by successive governments, want to see their economic concerns addressed here in the region, NHS waiting lists going down and to feel heard on immigration, crime and political trust.

“Reform is clearly cutting through to voters and both Labour and the Conservatives will need to show how they will deliver in these key policy areas to avoid electoral wipeout. If they don’t, then we may see one of the most dramatic elections in British history in four years’ time.”

For a full breakdown and analysis of the results visit www.plmr.co.uk/theroadto2029.