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New polling suggests Reform UK would have “won” in cancelled Harlow district council elections

News / Tue 20th Jan 2026 at 10:37am

INTERESTING new polling by JL Partners shows that Reform UK would have “won” in Harlow District Council this May, where elections are due to be cancelled.

If the elections were to go ahead in Harlow, Reform would win 30 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives 29 per cent and Labour 20 per cent.

JL Partners polled a representative sample of 4,441 adults across local authorities in which the 2026 council election was due to be delayed or pending delay. That is around 200 people in Harlow surveyed.

Only eleven of the 33 seats were due to be contested in Harlow. If Reform had won all eleven seats, the balance would have been Reform 12, Conservatives 12 and Labour 9.

In total, Reform UK would have won in 20 councils where elections are now set to be cancelled.

The press release states: “The data also shows that 82 per cent of voters in areas where they are being denied their democratic right believe those elections should go ahead.

Despite the Local Government Secretary’s deluded claim that voters would support cancelling what he described as “pointless elections”, the public clearly disagrees.

Two-thirds (66 per cent) of those polled say it is unacceptable to delay long-planned local elections in order to free up capacity for local government reorganisation.

“Further polling reveals that if there were a general election tomorrow, Reform leads on 30 per cent, a 10-point advantage, with the Conservatives and Labour trailing on 20 per cent and 18 per cent respectively”.

James Johnson, the co-founder of JL Partners, told the Telegraph:

“This poll shows Reform was set to sweep the board at the local elections in these councils.”

“As with last year, Reform was set for a historic victory – at the expense of both the Tories and Labour.

“Regardless of party, voters are furious when they hear about election cancellations: that 82 per cent to 5 per cent margin is one of the biggest I’ve seen in modern polling.”

18 Comments for New polling suggests Reform UK would have “won” in cancelled Harlow district council elections:

Adam
2026-01-20 11:01:04

This is why elections are being cancelled. I am no fan of reform, we need a Milei not a Farage. But it is obvious the game is up for the lib lab con politicians (hence the defections) and they do not like it. We are witnessing a dying system.

gary roberts
2026-01-20 11:18:48

I wonder what the turnout would be if the elections in Harlow were to go ahead in May? Would it reach 20% at best? I believe it would be lower because people are still more interested in their financial position than political dogma as portrayed by Reform in councils they currently run. How many have cut vital services or in the process of doing so? In short vote Reform in haste and get chaos.

Tomsk
2026-01-20 11:23:34

Not sure if it would have made a difference anyway. Reform are full of failed ex-Tories.

Gary Abbots
2026-01-20 11:27:34

200 people is a tiny sample size that could be swayed by many factors. Not to say that I don't think that Reform could win but JL partners are relatively new and unknown. Their algorithm reallocates “don’t knows”, for me this prediction is as good as "don't know".

Dave
2026-01-20 13:02:41

Its because people in Harlow are stupid.

Pete
2026-01-20 13:07:45

Would we have heard about this poll if it hadn't put Reform in the lead

David Forman
2026-01-20 13:11:14

I don't know why council leader Dan Swords lost his bottle by cancelling the election in May. Even if it were to be 12 Tories and 12 Reform councillors afterwards it is pretty much the same ideology, only a lot more 'bash the migrants' in the Reform camp. The local Labour luvvies deserve a hammering for supporting their appalling government.

Nicholas Taylor
2026-01-20 13:57:53

What we do know is that as at today 110 people have signed my petittion stating that they object to the elections being cancelled. I am not aware of any petition agreeing with the proposal. Just to remind readers the decision to seek a cancellation was made by just 18 Conservative councillors behind closed doors. David, it is worth saying that Reform are wholly against any of the proposals for change in Local Government, whereas the Leader of the Conservative group at ECC is a great fan, indeed he supports the option which would see Harlow joined with Maldon.

Me, Harlow
2026-01-20 14:19:46

Why would anyone vote Tories mark II? They want a repeat (or worse) of the 14 years of tory power?! Ah, Harlow people, think, please.

gary roberts
2026-01-20 15:03:56

Does anyone know what is Reform's political and policy agenda for Harlow?

NOTOREFORM
2026-01-20 15:54:43

Aren't JL Partners the ones based out of the Reform head office? Wonder why they would predict them winning???

Fed up pensioner mark 2
2026-01-20 15:59:35

Can u imagine the fuss if farage had cancelled elections because he thought the uni party were going to win.What a joke this country has become

Ron
2026-01-20 16:04:40

No to reform..so why are the tories and Labour wanting to cancel the elections then?that's the real point...its not just reform losing out it's the greens as well not to mention the voters.

Val
2026-01-20 18:26:33

Nicholas Taylor 110 people signing your petition out of an electorate of about 72,000 is 0.15%. They are hardly queuing up to sign, are they? The vast majority don't even vote in local elections and for one that is for a moribund authority is pretty superfluous. Also, the votes your party gets at elections is very small. Clearly whatever your message is is not resonating. How come local independents achieve results in Uttlesford and Epping but never in Harlow?

Brian Ashton
2026-01-20 19:10:00

I still don't really know what Reform stand for in Harlow. I mean evidence of the councils they run has seen increases in council taxes, in fighting and resignations. The introduction. Of DOGE which cost more money in consultants than it actually saved. Or are the going to flood the streets with ICE stormtroopers

Nicholas Taylor
2026-01-20 21:51:18

Well Val, had Harlow Council made any meaningful attempt to let residents know about any of the changes being proposed then perhaps more people would be aware of what this means for Harlow. As I said, 18 people must have gone into a room and voted to seek the cancellation of the elections. Nearly 1000 people voted for HAP in just four wards last time round. As for a moribund authority, the simple fact is the current crop of councillors together with officers face the biggest change in Essex since 1974, none have a mandate for such change and zero experience. Leaving it to councillors across Essex who cannot even agree amongst themselves the basis for change does not bode well. Finally, it will be interesting to see the results of the Governments consultation on this matter. I would remind you that the ECC survey showed that two thirds of respondents were unhappy about these changes. The Council took no notice.

Stephen Archer
2026-01-20 22:04:01

"Would have won" ho ho

Marie
2026-01-22 01:18:10

Hanging on by their fingernails as long as they can and if that means cancelling local elections and taking away the voters democratic right then that's what they will do out of sheer desperation. I wonder what Excuses they will come up with next year?! Desperately hanging on for dear life, knowing that their time is coming to an end. The voters will prise their fingers from that door frame on their way out!!

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