Ward by ward: Who will win the Mark Hall By-Election?

Elections / Wed 30th Apr 2025 at 01:08pm

AS there is a by-election in Mark Hall, we thought we would have a look at the ward and make a prediction. And yes, our last winner of the Grand National was in 1994! (Miinehoma).

This is, as they say, a funny old ward.

It could be described as a Labour ward prone to a bit of a protest vote.

UKIP took two seats in May 2014. But Labour regained one of them in a by-election six months later.

Nationally, the Tories had a great year in 2021, and sure enough, they took Mark Hall from Labour.

On that occasion, the Tories got over 1,000 votes.

Between 2021 and 2024, Labour have slowly clawed the seats back. They had a particularly impressive performance in 2024.

But this feels like one of those funny years again and that may be because of the Reform factor.

It may be that Reform, as in 2014 (Ukip) and 2021 (Cons) are the flavour of the month. They may only have a small team in Harlow but nationally, Nigel Farage is casting a big shadow over UK politics in 2025.

We had a by-election in Little Parndon in January and Labour held that. However, that is the most Labour of all wards in the town (they even held it in 2021). Plus the successful candidate Linda Clark believed that the former Labour councillor (Chris Vince MP) had a lot of good will.

The Tories had a good night here in 2021 but as we said, lost seats in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Everything about this has the feel of a three way split where all three main contenders could win. We keep going back to Little Parndon in January where Reform only managed 19% of the vote. Whereas in somewhere like Thurrock where there are two by elections in Ockendon, we expect Reform to take place both. But over there, they have a large team.

You would think that Labour may get a hard time due to issues such as the Winter Fuel Allowance and National Insurance as well as just being in power.

The local Conservatives believe they have a chance based on the work they are doing to regenerate the town but many see a lot of yet to be completed schemes and traffic woes.

It is a tough one to call! It will be close. It may be all a question of who suffers more from a Reform presence.

YH Prediction: Labour Hold

6 Comments for Ward by ward: Who will win the Mark Hall By-Election?:

Surinder

2025-04-30 14:51:53

A vote for Labour would spell disaster. The current Conservative council has delivered on council tax, improved housing repairs after years of Labour neglect and waste. They have also actively stopped London Labour boroughs sending people to our town to pressure our services. When did Harlow Labour protest about plans to ship so-called asylum seekers and people on the Newham housing list to the new developments at Wych Elm or Burnt Mills? Never. It was only the Conservative council that stood up and defended our town. A vote for Labour is a vote to be overrun and to pay higher Council Tax.

Me, Harlow

2025-04-30 16:49:35

Like the typo in 1st list of names, Jane Steer, instead of John!

Tomsk

2025-04-30 18:31:59

Im not sure the Tory council are delivering are they Surinder? The town centre still looks a mess - no building has actually started; Terminous House is still standing (despite Dan Swords promise before the last local elections). The flats by the station are still standing empty (despite Dan Swords promise before the last local elections); and people from London Boroughs and other councils are still being housed in Harlow. Council Tax still went up and we are really not seeing any difference. Voting Tory is just voting for more of the same.

Nick

2025-04-30 18:37:28

That's not a typo - Jane Steer is a former member of Harlow Council for the Mark Hall ward, who was elected in 2002 as a Lib Dem but defected to the Conservatives in July 2003. She lost her seat in 2006, and ran six more times from 2007 to 2016 without regaining it.