BREXIT! BREXIT! BREXIT!

ON the 29th March, we are leaving the European Union (maybe), but you must agree with me that that this is one of the most confusing things that is happening in British Politics right now. So, for this week’s blog, I’ve done some research and I’m going to try and clarify what’s happening for those of you who are at lost with it all, like I was.

BREXIT is a shorthand way of saying the UK leaving the EU – merging the words Britain and exit to get Brexit.

Why is Britain leaving the European Union? Well, this was all due to a referendum – a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age could take part in which was held on Thursday 23 June 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting.

What is the European Union? The European Union – often known as the EU – is an economic and political partnership involving 28 European countries. It has grown to become a “single market” allowing goods and people to move around, basically as if the member states were one country. It has its own currency, the euro, which is used by 19 of the member countries, its own parliament and it now sets rules in a wide range of areas.

So many ask if Brexit is certainly happening, the short answer right now is yes, whether we have a deal with the EU or not. However, can it be cancelled? Well… Yes. Stopping Brexit would require a change in the law in the UK, something neither the government nor the main UK opposition parties want to do at this point. The European Court of Justice ruled on 10 December 2018 that the UK could cancel the Article 50 Brexit process without the permission of the other 27 EU members, and remain a member of the EU on its existing terms, provided the decision followed a “democratic process”, in other words, if Parliament voted for it.
Another question, if the government doesn’t want to cancel Brexit can they delay it? Possibly. The EU might agree to extend Article 50 if its leaders thought it would help smooth the process or if there was a chance the UK could end up staying in, possibly through another referendum, but it would only be by a few months.

I hear you say, another referendum? Is this possible? Well, it would have to be put into law by the government, which they have said they will not do. However, the government could be forced into holding another referendum if enough MPs voted for it, but currently, there isn’t enough backing for one, but this seems to be growing slowly.

So back to the “deal” part of Brexit; why do politicians want a deal before leaving? To put it simply, having a deal between the UK and the EU will assist in ensuring a smooth as possible an exit from the EU for businesses and individuals – and to allow time for the two sides to strike a permanent trading relationship.

So what is the current deal that’s being negotiated (a full detail deal document has been released but its 599 pages long last year, so I’ll try and summarise this for you, with the help of BBC news articles):

Transition
The transition period (which the UK government calls “implementation period”) begins on 29 March 2019 and lasts until 31 December 2020.
The UK will need to abide by all EU rules, but will lose membership of its institutions.
The draft withdrawal agreement says the transition can be extended, but only for a period of one or two years (in other words up to the end of 2022 at most).
Both the UK and EU must agree to any extension and the decision must be taken before 1 July 2020.

Money
The draft agreement sets out the calculations for the financial settlement (or “divorce bill”) that the UK will need to pay to the EU to settle all of its obligations.
While no figure appears in the document, it is expected to be at least £39bn and it will be paid over a number of years.
Part of that money will be the financial contribution that the UK has to make during the transition period. This year the UK’s contribution to the EU budget is forecast to be a net £10.8bn.
If the transition is extended, there will have to be additional UK payments to the EU budget, which will be agreed separately.

Citizens’ rights
This is broadly unchanged from the initial draft of the withdrawal agreement which came out in March.
UK citizens in the EU, and EU citizens in the UK, will retain their residency and social security rights after Brexit.
Citizens who take up residency in another EU country during the transition period (including the UK of course) will be allowed to stay in that country after the transition.
Anyone that stays in the same EU country for five years will be allowed to apply for permanent residence.

Northern Ireland/the backstop
If no long-term trade deal has been agreed by the end of 2020 that avoids a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and if there is no extension to the transition period, then a backstop consisting of “a single customs territory between the (European) Union and the United Kingdom” will be triggered.
Northern Ireland will be in a deeper customs relationship with the EU than the rest of the UK; it will also be more closely aligned with the rules and regulations of the EU single market.
As long as the backstop is in operation, the UK will be subject to “level playing field conditions”, to ensure it cannot gain a competitive advantage while remaining in the same customs territory.
The UK cannot leave the backstop independently; it needs to be decided together with the EU.

Fishing
The agreement says that a separate agreement will need to be reached on access to EU fishing in UK waters.
The document says: “The Union and the United Kingdom shall use their best endeavours to conclude and ratify ‘an agreement’ on access to waters and fishing opportunities.”

Laws and disputes
The UK will remain under the European Court of Justice (ECJ) jurisdiction during the transition.
A joint UK-EU committee will be set up to try to resolve any disputes on the interpretation of the withdrawal agreement.
If the backstop is triggered and the UK forms a single customs territory with the EU, the ECJ will not be able to resolve disputes between the UK and EU directly.
Instead, the whole dispute resolution procedure will be backed up by an arbitration panel. However, if any dispute rests on the interpretation of EU law, the arbitration panel refers the case to the ECJ for a binding decision.

However, there is more, but this is probably the important parts now, but with Brexit, this information that I’ve typed out could possibly be outdated before this blog is released, which is quite annoying.

I hear you ask, can we leave without a deal, if we can’t agree on something? Yes. This is the so-called no-deal Brexit. So, what does this mean? This means the UK would break all ties with the EU with immediate effect, with no transition period and no guarantees on citizens’ rights of residence. The government are scared that this would cause significant disruption to businesses in the short-term, with lengthy tailbacks of lorries at the channel ports, as drivers face new checks on their cargos. Furthermore, Food retailers have warned of shortages of fresh produce and the NHS are stockpiling medicines, in case supplies from EU countries are interrupted. Government ministers and multinational companies with factories in the UK have also warned about the long-term impact on the British economy.

Even without a deal, the UK would be able to trade in the EU because The World Trade Organization sets rules for countries that don’t have free trade deals with each other, including tariffs – the taxes charged on the import of goods.

So what is happening now?
The Prime Minister is trying to get a better deal from the EU. She wants to get changes to the legal text she agreed with the 27 other member states. MPs held a series of votes on 29 January on potential changes to Mrs May’s deal. Most – including a bid to delay Brexit to prevent a no-deal departure – were defeated.

MPs did back a call for the government to rule out a no-deal Brexit, but it was non-binding and Mrs May has repeatedly insisted that the only way to ensure no deal is to back a deal.

The key vote for the prime minister was when MPs backed a call to replace the controversial Northern Ireland backstop clause with “alternative” arrangements. Mrs May believes the backstop is the main reason so many of her MPs and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, who she relies on to support her in key Commons votes, are against her deal.

She has promised to return to the Commons by 13 February at the latest with fresh proposals, which will be put to the vote. MPs will again be able to suggest alternatives, including, for example, delaying Brexit or holding another referendum.

But, you may be thinking why are so many MPs not backing the deal? The EU has insisted it will not alter the legal text it has agreed with the UK and that the controversial Northern Ireland backstop is part and parcel of that. The UK side hopes they will cave in at the last minute and agree to changes, when faced with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. Hence many MP fear it could leave Britain tied to the EU indefinitely with no say over its rules and no ability to strike trade deals with other countries.

What happens if Mrs May can’t get the deal through the Commons? It is hard to say for certain. There is a number of possible scenarios, including:

Leaving the EU without a deal
Another EU referendum (this can only happen if the government brings forward legislation to hold one and a majority in the Commons supports it)
A general election
MPs could take control of the Brexit process from the government
Some of these options would involve delaying the official Brexit date of 29 March by a few months to allow time to renegotiate a deal, if the EU agrees to that

As you see, Brexit is far from over, and only time will tell with what’s going to happen… but there are many answers that still need to be answered, so the only thing I can say is, keep watching the news and see what happens…

Because now I’ve written over 1,900 words, my longest blog yet, all I can say is I hope this blog can help in understanding Brexit (however, I’ve only scraped the tip of the iceberg) and I hope I’ve understood this properly myself because like you, it has confused me too, but reading about this has clarified things but also cause many questions.